Modelling the Holocene evolution of coastal gullies on the Isle of Wight

Geomorphological evidence has frequently been used to infer past environmental conditions, but in recent years the emergence of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has opened the possibility of using numerical modelling as a tool in palaeo-environmental reconstruction. The application of LEMs for this purpose involves retrodictive modelling, each simulation scenario being configured with model variables (e.g. reflecting climate change) and parameters to reflect a specific hypothesis of environmental change. Plausible scenarios are then identified by matching contemporary observed and modelled landscapes. However, although considerable uncertainty is known to surround the specification of model driving conditions and parameters, previous studies have not considered this issue. This research applies a technique of accounting for the uncertainty surrounding the specification of driving conditions and model parameters by using reduced complexity 'metamodels' to analyse the full model parameter space and thus constrain sources of uncertainty and plausible retrodicted scenarios more effectively. This study applies the developed techniques to a case study focused on a specific set of coastal gullies found on the Isle of Wight, UK. A key factor in the evolution of these gullies are the relative balance between rates of cliff retreat (which reduces gully extent) and headwards incision caused by knickpoint migration (which increases gully extent). To inform the choice and parameterisation of the numerical model used in this research an empirical-conceptual model of gully evolution was initially developed. To provide a long-term context for the evolution of the gullies and to identify the relative importance of the various driving factors, the Holocene erosional history of the Isle of Wight gullies was then simulated using a LEM. In a preliminary set of simulations a 'traditional' (i.e. with no consideration of parameter uncertainty) retrodictive modelling approach was applied, in which driving variables were arbitrarily altered and observed and simulated landscape topographies compared, under various scenarios of imposed environmental change. These initial results revealed that the coastal gullies have been ephemeral in nature for much of the Holocene, only becoming semi-permanent once cliff retreat rates fall below a critical threshold at 2500 cal. years BP. Next, in an attempt to constrain more detailed erosional histories and to explore the extent to which retrodicted interpretations of landscape change were confounded by uncertainty, a Central Composite Design (CCD) sampling technique was employed to sample variations in the model driving variables, enabling the trajectories of gully response to different combinations of the driving conditions to be modelled explicitly. In some of these simulations, where the ranges of bedrock erodibility (0:03 - 0:04m0:2a)

Issue 2: Imagining a Community-Led, Multi-Service Delivery Model for Ontario Child Welfare: A Framework for Collaboration Among African Canadian Community Partners

This article imagines a new model for child welfare in Ontario, specifically for African Canadian children, youth, and families. Throughout the article, we discuss both what needs to be changed and how those changes can be achieved, including the development and implementation of community-led organizational structures, programs, and services, and the restructuring of government-community relations and funding allocation, to enable African Canadian community-based agencies to deliver preventative, culturally relevant, family-centred supportive services to African Canadians. The article outlines the development of a community-led, multi-service delivery model for Ontario child welfare, and the potential challenges and opportunities for the delivery of such services to African Canadian children, youth, and families

The influence of flow discharge variations on the morphodynamics of a diffluence-confluence unit on a large river: Impacts of discharge variation on a diffluence-confluence unit

© 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Bifurcations are key geomorphological nodes in anabranching and braided fluvial channels, controlling local bed morphology, the routing of sediment and water, and ultimately defining the stability of their associated diffluence–confluence unit. Recently, numerical modelling of bifurcations has focused on the relationship between flow conditions and the partitioning of sediment between the bifurcate channels. Herein, we report on field observations spanning September 2013 to July 2014 of the three-dimensional flow structure, bed morphological change and partitioning of both flow discharge and suspended sediment through a large diffluence–confluence unit on the Mekong River, Cambodia, across a range of flow stages (from 13 500 to 27 000 m 3 s −1 ). Analysis of discharge and sediment load throughout the diffluence–confluence unit reveals that during the highest flows (Q = 27 000 m 3 s −1 ), the downstream island complex is a net sink of sediment (losing 2600 ± 2000 kg s −1 between the diffluence and confluence), whereas during the rising limb (Q = 19 500 m 3 s −1 ) and falling limb flows (Q = 13 500 m 3 s −1 ) the sediment balance is in quasi-equilibrium. We show that the discharge asymmetry of the bifurcation varies with discharge and highlight that the influence of upstream curvature-induced water surface slope and bed morphological change may be first-order controls on bifurcation configuration. Comparison of our field data to existing bifurcation stability diagrams reveals that during lower (rising and falling limb) flow the bifurcation may be classified as unstable, yet transitions to a stable condition at high flows. However, over the long term (1959–2013) aerial imagery reveals the diffluence–confluence unit to be fairly stable. We propose, therefore, that the long-term stability of the bifurcation, as well as the larger channel planform and morphology of the diffluence–confluence unit, may be controlled by the dominant sediment transport regime of the system. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

A self-limiting bank erosion mechanism? Inferring temporal variations in bank form and skin drag from high resolution topographic data

Fluvial bank erosion rates are often quantified by assuming that the erosion rate is a function of the excess (above a critical threshold) boundary shear stress applied by the flow. Research has shown that the form roughness induced by natural topographic bank features, such as slumps, spurs and embayments, is the dominant component of the spatially-averaged total shear stress, meaning that form roughness provides an important control on bank erosion rates. However, measuring the relative components of the total shear stress for a natural system is not straightforward. In this paper we employ the method of Kean and Smith (2006a,b) to partition the form and skin drag components of river bank roughness using a time series (2005-2011) of high-resolution topographic surveys of an eroding bank of the Cecina River in central Italy. This method approximates the form drag component of the roughness along a longitudinal bank profile as a series of user defined Gaussian curves. The extracted metrics are used in conjunction with an estimate of the outer region flow velocity to partition the form and skin drag components of the total boundary shear stress according to the Kean and Smith analytical solution. The relative magnitude of the form and skin shear stress at each survey date is analysed alongside DEMs of difference to reveal that intense episodes of erosion are followed by periods of quiescence. We show that this is due to the protection offered by increased form drag roughness following erosion. We conceptualise the dynamic feedbacks that exist between river discharge, bank erosion processes and bank form roughness, into a simple model of the self-limiting nature of river bank erosio

Extreme flood-driven fluvial bank erosion and sediment loads: direct process measurements using integrated Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) and hydro-acoustic techniques: Direct measurement of flood-driven erosion using MLS and MBES

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This methods paper details the first attempt at monitoring bank erosion, flow and suspended sediment at a site during flooding on the Mekong River induced by the passage of tropical cyclones. We deployed integrated mobile laser scanning (MLS) and multibeam echo sounding (MBES), alongside acoustic Doppler current profiling (aDcp), to directly measure changes in river bank and bed at high (~0.05 m) spatial resolution, in conjunction with measurements of flow and suspended sediment dynamics. We outline the methodological steps used to collect and process this complex point cloud data, and detail the procedures used to process and calibrate the aDcp flow and sediment flux data. A comparison with conventional remote sensing methods of estimating bank erosion, using aerial images and Landsat imagery, reveals that traditional techniques are error prone at the high temporal resolutions required to quantify the patterns and volumes of bank erosion induced by the passage of individual flood events. Our analysis reveals the importance of cyclone-driven flood events in causing high rates of erosion and suspended sediment transport, with a c. twofold increase in bank erosion volumes and a fourfold increase in suspended sediment volumes in the cyclone-affected wet season. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Sustainable rice cultivation in the deep flooded zones of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

This paper explains how the management of the full-dyke system in the deep flooded zones of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta affects rice cultivation, and outlines how alternative dyke management strategies could offer more sustainable adaptations in the face of future environmental threats. The current management of the ‘full-dyke’ network has been successful in promoting triple-cropping rice cultivation, but this practice has prevented sediment deposition on the land surface. River-borne sediments deposited on the delta land surface have high economic value because they are (i) rich in nutrients (potentially 26 million USD/yr of free fertiliser to An Giang Province) and can (ii) help to maintain the Mekong Delta land above sealevel. Without a continuing supply of sediment to the delta, triple-cropping paddies may not continue to be sustainable or profitable for the majority of rice farmers over the next 10 to 20 years. The economic value of sediment as a free fertiliser is particularly important to poor farmers, as without sediment, they run a significant risk of debt due to fluctuations in rice, fertiliser, and other input prices. With incoming loads now declining, sediment must be managed carefully as a resource. Our projections show that the best use of the remaining sediment resource can be achieved by allowing full paddy flooding only in years of high sediment potential, and this would greatly increase the sustainability of rice agriculture in the face of future environmental change. This recommended policy is an option with few regrets, in that its other benefits include maximising groundwater replenishment, ensuring freshwater availability during drought periods (including countering salt water intrusion), cleansing rice paddies of pests and disease, and tempering downstream flooding. If triple-rice-cropping continues to have priority, financial support will particularly be needed to provide help to poorer farmers coping with increases in artificial fertiliser prices

The Southampton-York Natural Scenes (SYNS) dataset: statistics of surface attitude

Recovering 3D scenes from 2D images is an under-constrained task; optimal estimation depends upon knowledge of the underlying scene statistics. Here we introduce the Southampton-York Natural Scenes dataset (SYNS: https://syns.soton.ac.uk), which provides comprehensive scene statistics useful for understanding biological vision and for improving machine vision systems. In order to capture the diversity of environments that humans encounter, scenes were surveyed at random locations within 25 indoor and outdoor categories. Each survey includes (i) spherical LiDAR range data (ii) high-dynamic range spherical imagery and (iii) a panorama of stereo image pairs. We envisage many uses for the dataset and present one example: an analysis of surface attitude statistics, conditioned on scene category and viewing elevation. Surface normals were estimated using a novel adaptive scale selection algorithm. Across categories, surface attitude below the horizon is dominated by the ground plane (0° tilt). Near the horizon, probability density is elevated at 90°/270° tilt due to vertical surfaces (trees, walls). Above the horizon, probability density is elevated near 0° slant due to overhead structure such as ceilings and leaf canopies. These structural regularities represent potentially useful prior assumptions for human and machine observers, and may predict human biases in perceived surface attitude

Modulation of outer bank erosion by slump blocks: disentangling the protective and destructive role of failed material on the three-dimensional flow structure

The three-dimensional flow field near the banks of alluvial channels is the primary factor controlling rates of bank erosion. Although submerged slump blocks and associated large-scale bank roughness elements have both previously been proposed to divert flow away from the bank, direct observations of the interaction between eroded bank material and the 3-D flow field are lacking. Here we use observations from multibeam echo sounding, terrestrial laser scanning, and acoustic Doppler current profiling to quantify, for the first time, the influence of submerged slump blocks on the near-bank flow field. In contrast to previous research emphasizing their influence on flow diversion away from the bank, we show that slump blocks may also deflect flow onto the bank, thereby increasing local shear stresses and rates of erosion. We use our measurements to propose a conceptual model for how submerged slump blocks interact with the flow field to modulate bank erosion

Climate and human exploitation have regulated Atlantic salmon populations in the River Spey, Scotland, over the last 2000 years

Historical salmon catch records suggest that climatic variability, and more recently human exploitation, control patterns of abundance in Atlantic salmon populations. We present the first long-term (2000-year) reconstruction of Atlantic Salmon population variations based on a Marine Derived Nutrient (MDN) lake sediment record. Our record is constructed from nitrogen isotopes (δ15N) measured from a lake sediment core, which we compare with an escapement index (EI) derived from historic net catch data on major Scottish salmon rivers. We used an isotope mixing model to demonstrate that the N isotope values are likely enriched with MDN and demonstrate that Loch Insh sediments are enriched compared with a control site (Loch Vaa) that has never had exposure to salmon. We demonstrate that current adult spawner returns are around half that of historic values prior to major human exploitation. Before the onset of widespread human exploitation and habitat degradation, large fluctuations in salmon abundance are attributed to variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature. While our data support published reconstructions of declining Atlantic salmon stocks in Northwest European rivers over the last 1000 years, rather than point to a solely human cause, the human impact appears to be overprinted on larger-scale changes in marine habitat occurring at the transition from the warmer Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA) to the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA)